Reference | Methodology

How the numbers are made

For a council or a public document, where a figure comes from matters as much as the figure. Here is the honest version: what we measure, what we model, and what we assume.

Measured vs modelled

Measured

Permit data

Multiplex permit applications and issuances are drawn from municipal records. These are counts, not estimates.

Measured

Lot & zoning data

Lot size, frontage, zoning, assessed value, and transit distance come from public assessment and GIS sources.

Modelled

Feasibility / PlexRank

Return on equity is computed with a development proforma — land basis, buildable area, construction cost, fees, and exit value. It is a model, and we state its assumptions.

Modelled

Scenario outcomes

When we change a rule and recompute viable lots, the result is a projection under stated assumptions, not a forecast of behaviour.

What goes into the feasibility model

The PlexRank return for each lot is built from these inputs. Change your rules and the fee and envelope inputs change with them — which is what lets us model a policy decision before you make it.

  • Buildable area from lot dimensions and the applicable zoning envelope
  • Construction cost per square foot, updated to current market
  • Land basis from assessed and comparable sale values
  • Municipal fees: development charges, amenity charges, permit fees
  • Exit value from comparable sales analysis
  • Financing assumptions: rate, loan-to-cost, placement, and carry period

Official Sources Referenced

Frequently asked questions

What does "the lot pencils" actually mean?+
It means the projected return on equity clears the threshold a typical builder needs to proceed. We treat roughly 20% as the line where most builders will act, and flag higher tiers separately. The exact threshold can be tuned to your local market when we set up your city.
How often does the data refresh?+
Permit data is tracked on an ongoing basis. Cost and value inputs are updated as the market moves. The specific cadence for your municipality is agreed as part of a monitoring partnership.
Are the published charts your data or ours?+
The charts on this hub are real VanPlex PlexRank analysis for cities we have already studied. Your municipality's figures are prepared for you directly and are not published here.
Can we see the assumptions behind a number?+
Yes. For partner cities we document the proforma inputs and thresholds behind every figure, so your team can review and, where needed, challenge them.

Want this for your municipality?

We already track multiplex permit uptake and lot-by-lot feasibility across BC. Tell us your city and we'll show you what your data says — and how a monitoring partnership works.